Friends Like This: The International Community’s Role in Destroying Nagorno-Karabakh
There have been few acts more cynical and depraved in recent history than the global response to Azerbaijan’s recent military operation against the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh (also known as Artsakh). Following one day of fighting, Nagorno-Karabakh authorities capitulated on September 20th, 2023, opening the door to Azerbaijan’s full takeover of the region and in high likelihood, the elimination of its Armenian population through displacement or murder.
Despite a nine-month blockade which had been condemned by the United Nations and a warning from a former International Criminal Court chief prosecutor that there existed a danger of genocide, international response has been lackluster. One might think, or at least hope, that in the face of a possibly impending genocide that there would be a powerful global reaction. But just like in Bosnia or Rwanda in the 1990s, the world has failed to take timely action to avert catastrophe. To add an extra layer of insult, many actors which thump ideas like human rights and democracy were silent, two-sided, or complicit in the events.
Guilt must be placed on Turkey and Azerbaijan above all others. Armenia has also erred, though their lack of a stronger response must be traced back to the threat Baku poses to the country (which the world has also failed to address). This piece, however, aims to examine and critique those apart from the main actors who could have prevented the current tragedy.
Russia
Like other areas of the former Soviet Union, Russia is keen on maintaining influence in the Caucasus. As part of the peace deal following the 2020 war, which saw Azerbaijan retake most of the territory surrounding Artsakh from Armenian control, Russia deployed peacekeepers to the area. These peacekeepers, as is evidenced by the recent outbreak of violence, did not do much to maintain the peace. During the nine-month blockade implemented against Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijan, the peacekeepers stood by as Armenians began to starve; unsurprisingly, they failed to act when the long predicted Azerbaijani military operation began.
Russia’s response was an open sign of contempt for the government of Nikol Pashinyan, the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia. Pashinyan rode a wave of anti-corruption, anti-Russia protests to power in 2018 known as the Velvet Revolution. Since then, Moscow has taken an increasingly hostile approach to Yerevan. Despite Armenia being a member of the CSTO, a Russian centered defense organization made of ex-Soviet states, Moscow failed to intervene when the territory of Armenia proper (not Nagorno-Karabakh) was attacked by Azerbaijani forces in 2022.
Moscow’s contempt extended further during the recent round of fighting. The Russian minister of defense Dmitry Medvedev cascaded Pashinyan for “flirting with NATO” (Armenia has been trying to deepen ties with the EU and US in place of Russia’s unreliability) and threatened that he was next. Russia’s break from Armenia’s side is more than just a result of a falling out between the two; Moscow needs Baku.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022, it was cascaded with a raft of sanctions including on its oil industry. This did not stop Moscow from profiting off its huge supply of oil; with prices capped on its sales, Russia has sold its oil to Azerbaijan who has in turn sold it to Europe. This makes the notion that Azerbaijan is a regional bulwark against Russia (as is made by some Ukrainians and their allies), preposterous.
Israel
While Israel can hardly be called a “friend” of Armenia, their role in the conflict must not be understated. Israel provides nearly 70 percent of Azerbaijan’s arms, including the deadly HAROP suicide drone which was critical in helping Baku achieve victory in 2020. Israel’s support of Azerbaijan is part of its strategy for countering Iran, which has a sizeable Azeri minority. Azerbaijani officials have made claims to Western Azerbaijan in Iran from time-to-time.
Still, it looked as though relations between the two were on the upswing with the opening of an Armenian embassy in Tel Aviv in 2019. The uptick in violence by Azerbaijan since then has changed the equation. Cruelly, Israel congratulated Armenia on the 32nd anniversary of its independence on September 21, 2023, the day after Artsakh’s surrender – an event which could not have been possible without Israel’s support of Baku.
European Union
EU-Armenia relations also seemed to be taking a turn for the better in recent years. In 2017, the sides signed the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with the goal of bolstering economic ties between the two and bringing Armenia closer to the EU’s standard of laws. Europe’s need for gas has trumped the CEPA and any notion of standing for democracy and human rights.
When Russia threatened to cut off gas to Europe in response to the Union’s support for Ukraine, the EU turned to Azerbaijan. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen went as far as to label the country as “trustworthy,” gleefully posting a photo with Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev. One EU member – France – has seemed generally more supportive rhetorically of the Armenian position.
Macron has vocalized support for Yerevan on multiple occasions and helped to broker a ceasefire following 2022’s round of combat in Armenia proper. An EU observation committee was deployed to southern Armenia to dissuade any further Azeri advancements, but beyond that, material or firm political support has been absent for Armenia on the Artsakh issue. Statements by EU leaders, including Macron, often revert to the use of platitudes without concrete aid attached to them. Like Israel, the EU congratulated Armenia on its independence the day after Nagorno-Karabakh’s defeat.
United States
Despite Joe Biden’s recognition of the Armenian Genocide, the current American president has done little to help bring peace to the Caucasus. In fact, the President has not suspended the waiver used to provide Azerbaijan with military aid since 2002 despite growing calls from members of congress to do so. The waiver’s renewal is currently in the air, but if it is eventually canceled it will come too little, too late for Karabakh Armenians.
The U.S., attempting to capitalize on Russia’s current weakness, has attempted to make inroads in the region. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Armenia in 2022 in attempt to further pull Yerevan away from Moscow’s orbit. Shortly before the recent day of fighting, the American military carried out a military exercise with Armenia, though this seemed limited to riot control training. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken issued a statement urging Azerbaijan to end the use of violence, but his words ring hollow given the lack of will to punish Baku for its actions. During the UN General Council’s meeting the day after, Biden shook hands with Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov.
It appears Azerbaijan’s importance in the spheres of energy and security (i.e., its stance against Iran), prevails in importance over human rights for the administration claiming to defend the same values in Ukraine.
Liberalism vs Authoritarianism
Liberal officials and pundits in the west have been eager to frame the rise of far-right movements in Europe, the aggression of Russia and Iran, and the threat of China as a global battle between democracies and tyrants. The lack of a major international response and competent, in-depth media coverage reveals the shakiness of such framing. While far from perfect, both Artsakh and Armenia are democracies, whereas Azerbaijan consistently ranks among the most tyrannical countries in the world.
“Territorial integrity” is often the fall back for those who tacitly or directly support Baku, never mind that forced displacement and genocide is illegal no matter where it takes place. Though Nagorno-Karabakh is within the internationally recognized borders of Azerbaijan, the Armenian population voted multiple times to secede – first during the twilight years of the Soviet Union (to be transferred to the Armenian SSR), then twice after its collapse. That the international community has never squared the concepts of territorial integrity and self-determination, contradictory in this case and others, is not the fault of Karabakh Armenians, but of world powers themselves.
Armenian residents of Artsakh do not deserve to be held hostage by the decision of Joseph Stalin nearly a century ago. In the same breath, nor should they be granted the same “protections” as Azerbaijanis under the Aliyev government, where rights are non-existent and where they have previously been subjugated to pogroms. Regretfully, cowardice on behalf of international actors has provided a green light to Turkey and Azerbaijan.